SAWS warns of a very strong El Niño and a hotter, drier spring
Below-normal rainfall is expected over most of the country for October to January, with above-normal temperatures.
The South African Weather Service’s seasonal outlook warns of a “very strong” El Niño, possibly the strongest in living memory. It expects below-normal rainfall over most of South Africa for October to December 2026 and November 2026 to January 2027, together with above-normal temperatures.
SAWS itself cautions that not every El Niño causes drought, and points to 1997/98 as an example. For the Western Cape, a winter-rainfall region, the outlook matters less for dam inflows than for how fast the dams are drawn down over a hot summer.
Our rain outlook panel uses modelled Open-Meteo data for the Theewaterskloof catchment. The archive puts May to October 2026 rainfall there at 414.9 mm.